Save the champagne

Oh joy! The opposition has got a majority in our most recent national opinion poll. I hate to ruin the party but someone’s got to. 

The center-right opposition looks considerably stronger in this poll than in others. Given the statistical uncertainties it’d be interesting to have this trend confirmed. 

The alleged margin is five percentage points, 51-46. Assuming this is true it is still a slim lead. 18 months before the election anything can and will happen. Don’t forget that with a bit of help from our state television drastic shifts in the opinion occurred in the very last days of the 2002 campaign. 

Three out of seven parties in the Riksdag are small and risk losing their representation altogether due to the rule that requires at least 4 percent of the national vote. If any of these parties fail to reach 4 percent that would shift the balance drastically and the opposition runs the biggest risk since two of these parties belong to the opposition. 

Adding further to the uncertainty, there is a rumor about a new feminist party. This could mean more difficulties for the left but no one knows. 

The governing Labor party hasn’t started their campaign. When they do we’ll notice. They’ve got an awesome campaign machinery and thanks to the unholy alliance with the unions they will have by far the largest campaign budget. 

Sweden is in desperate need of a regime change and there appears to be a positive trend for the opposition but we’ve got a year and a half of fierce campaigning before us. So save the champagne for now.

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