Once in a while things happen for the first time. Experts talk of black swans, events we couldn't imagine.
Those are the exceptions. Many accidents occur repeatedly. In fact, a useful tool for gazing into the future is a rear mirror.
But I haven't had any disasters, you say? Good for you! What about those times you were lucky? Or, not as unlucky as you could have been? Use the history within your context, think of what has happened. Imagine what the impact could be, another day, under worse conditions.